Current Drilling Forecast

The current CAODC 2020 Drilling Forecast was released on November 13, 2019. Read the Press Release here. WATCH: Scroll down to watch the opening remarks and Premier Jason Kenney's keynote address from the 2019 State of the Industry Luncheon at the Westin Calgary.

WATCH: 2019 State of the Industry Opening Remarks and Keynote Address, November 13, 2019.



2020 Forecast: Total Wells (Western Canada): 4,905*


Q1 2020

Active Rigs = 165
Fleet = 533
Utilization = 31%
Op Days** = 14,963

Q2 2020

Active Rigs = 80
Fleet = 521
Utilization = 15%
Op Days** = 7,226

Q3 2020

Active Rigs = 125
Fleet = 509
Utilization = 25%
Op Days** = 11,485

Q4 2020

Active Rigs = 140
Fleet = 497
Utilization = 28%
Op Days** = 12,924

 

Average 2020

Active Rigs = 128
Fleet = 515
Utilization = 25%
Op Days** = 46,599

Assumptions

* Actual  ** Calculation based on spud to rig release
WTI = $65.00/bbl (USD) WCS = $44.00/bbl (CND)
AECO = $2.19/mcf (CND)
9.5 days/well


Operating Days & Wells Completed

Time Period

Operating Days

Wells Drilled

2017 Actual

66,524

7,091

2018 Actual

64,722

7,428

2019 Actual + Q4 Forecast

46,511

4,896

2020 Forecast

46,599

4,905

2019 vs. 2020

88 or 0.2%

9 or 0.2%


Impact on Employment

Active Rigs

Direct Jobs

Indirect Jobs

Total Jobs

Jobs per Rig

20*

155*

175

2017 Actual

194

3,880

30,070

33,950

2018 Actual

200

4,005

31,039

35,044

2019 Actual + Forecast

125

2,507

19,428

21,935

2020 Forecast

128

2,550

19,763

22,313

2018 vs. 2019

-6

-126

-744

-870

 
*Source CAODC: 20 direct jobs per rig, 155 indirect jobs per rig.