Current Drilling Forecast

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The current CAOEC 2021 Drilling Forecast was released on November 18, 2020.

DOWNLOAD THE STATE OF THE INDUSTRY REPORT AND 2021 FORECAST



2021 Forecast: Total Wells (Western Canada): 3,771*


Q1 2021

Active Rigs = 136
Fleet = 498
Op Days** = 12,335

Q2 2021

Active Rigs = 40
Fleet = 488
Op Days** = 3,612

Q3 2021

Active Rigs = 75
Fleet = 483
Op Days** = 6,890

Q4 2021

Active Rigs = 120
Fleet = 478
Op Days** = 11,101

Average 2021

Active Rigs = 93
Fleet = 486
Op Days** = 33,938


Assumptions

* Actual  ** Calculation based on spud to rig release
WTI = $51.25/bbl (USD) WCS = $33.25/bbl (CND)
AECO = $2.27/mcf (CND)
9 days/well


Operating Days & Wells Completed

Time Period

Operating Days

Wells Drilled

2018 Actual

64,722

7,428

2019 Actual

45,428

5,545

2020 Actual + Q4 Forecast

29,664

3,296

2021 Forecast

33,938

3,771

2020 vs. 2021

4,274 or 14%

475 or 14%


Impact on Employment

Active Rigs

Direct Jobs

Indirect Jobs

Total Jobs

Jobs per Rig

20*

180*

200

2018 Actual

176

3,528

31,749

35,277

2019 Actual

122

2,422

21,979

24,421

2020 Actual + Forecast

81

1,620

14,581

16,201

2021 Forecast

93

1,855

16,695

18,550

2020 vs. 2021

12

235

2,114

2,349

 
*Source CAOEC: 20 direct jobs per rig, 180 indirect jobs per rig.